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On February 14th, Bitcoin broke the 200-day EMA at $8,833 and closed above it at $9,480. It has since rallied to its current price of $10,180. Where it’s now testing resistance at the Kijun-Sen (blue squiggly line).

There are two possibilities- price will either break above or fall below the Kijun-Sen. Since we don’t know what the market will do, it’s best to prepare for both scenarios.

Bull case: If price breaks above $10,180 and remains sustainable for four hours, this confirms the break out and long positions with a stop-loss of $9,480 are recommended.

Our first target will be a move to the lower red resistance line, which is currently at about $10,760. Above this we may see a move to about $11,645, the upper red resistance line.

Bear case: If price is rejected at $10,180 and falls below $9,480, we may see a retest of the 200-day EMA, currently at about $8,833. Otherwise, price will consolidate until either case occurs.

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