Deloitte’s Business Outlook Q2 2018 revealed rising global interest rates combined with a “bout of bank caution on lending” would generate a “mini-credit crunch”, but Australia’s economy would continue to track well overall.
Specifically the sunshine state, thanks to “eye-watering house prices south of the border finally sending more economic refugees north to Queensland”.
That combined with gas exports leaping forward and tourists continuing to flock the state, Queensland has relatively nothing to worry about.
That being said, the sudden tightening in credit availability was a “key wave” to the prospects of Australia’s industry landscape.
“The biggest wave — certainly in terms of potential impacts — is that higher global funding costs are combining with a sudden tightening in credit availability from the big banks to turn the screws on credit-related sectors,” the report said.
“That’s a big problem for property, and some linked sectors as well.”
The report added while the crunch pressured house prices, the falls, which were gathering pace, remain sufficiently contained and didn’t pose larger problems for the overall economic outlook.
Although, previous loans were too big for relevant risks, were more sensible now. The report predicted while that’s good for the medium-term resilience of the economy, the resulting credit availability decline was a negative for Australia’s near-term outlook.
But it’s not just the availability of credit throwing a spanner into the works, housing prices were “sitting north of the stupidity line” in many markets. While this was a powerful positive for developers to develop, and for investors to buy into, the shift would leave investors and developers fearful of getting stung.
While the crunch would place further pressure on house prices, it was occurring at the same time energy costs jump.
“But business confidence is generating a capex recovery and consumers, despite falling wealth, will be getting support from a nascent recovery in wages and from personal tax cuts,” it said.
“On balance, that leaves the outlook for Oz where it’s been for some time: good without being great.”
So if Australia’s economic outlook is “good without being great”, then the Queensland property market should have nothing to worry about, as Deloitte predicted the east coast would “dominate” the state growth leaderboard this financial year.
“The Sunshine State is now well and truly through the worst of its mining construction downturn.”
Despite the amount of research done to publish the 155-page report, Deloitte advised that while they believed these forecasts to be a reasonable assessment of prospective trends in the Australian economy, many things could and would happen to ensure that they will not provide an exact picture.
They said “don’t be scared, be prepared”.